Syria

So, Syria's dictator has run away from his country, after he had been abandoned by his backers Russia and Iran. 

I recall Iraq's dictator, Saddam Hussein, back in 2003, being ousted following America's "shock and awe" operation to remove him, accusing him of being in possession of weapons of mass-destruction. Saddam appears to have gotten rid of those, but he became a scapegoat for 9/11. He was unceremoniously hanged in December 2006, after (I think) 45 years in power, being feted by the high and mighty of this world. Saddam had been useful to the USA as a counterweight against the Islamic Republic of Iran; the two countries fought an eight-year war. Saddam deployed chemical weapons against his own population, the Kurds. Halabja was a killing ground against up to 5000 people. But when the Yanks booted him out, Saddam's WMD were nowhere to be found. Nobody mourned his dreadful death, but the justification for the invasion was void.

I recall the equally maverick, but equally deadly dictator Muammar Ghadaffi, Lybia's leader with the assumed rank of Colonel. His regime has been accused of masterminding the downing of PamAm flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988. We commemorate the 36th anniversary of that atrocity on 21st December. But Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, who had been accused of involvement with the attack was later released on compassionate grounds. Kenny Macaskill, the Scottish justice secretary in 2009, conveniently overlooking that Al-Megrahi had been convicted of crimes that showed no compassion at all. 

Syria's Bashar al-Assad also deployed chemical weapons against his own people, in his own capital, 11 years ago. The uprising from 2011 caused a civil war that appears to have been concluded with his fall. A ghastly dictator, who had no compunction in killing Syrian civilians, prompting a mass exodus. Their number is thought to be as much as 11 million. Some have ended up here in Stornoway, I know of a barber shop which was set up by a Syrian refugee. 

Will these refugees come back? Once the elation of Assad's craven flight to his paymasters in Moscow has subsided, they may be well advised to await developments, and see whether Syria is spared the bloody aftermath that followed the removal of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and of Muammar Ghadaffi in Libya.

They're back

 Yesterday, Sunday 15th August, the Taliban walked into power in the Afghan capital Kabul. Its president fled, and no resistance was offered by government forces. In the end, the government, sponsored and supported by the US and NATO, turned out to be as strong as a freshly-boiled strand of spaghetti. Spineless, a paper tiger. A failure of US foreign policy.

The Americans did well to boot the Taliban out of power in 2001. It had to be done. It is a pity that they did not stop to think about the consequences of that military victory, as it was by then. The US did not anticipate what they would have to do post-Taliban. Change management involves knowledge of the start-point of your enterprise, and knowledge of your end-point. Where do you want the enterprise you are changing to end up. The Americans did not have a clue. They went into Afghanistan in a blind rage, which is understandable after 3,000 innocent people were killed in the Twin Towers attacks of 9/11. They tried the same in Eye-rack, booting out that odious man Saddam Hussein.

Regime change. Winning the hearts and minds of the people. If you want to do that, you got to know the hearts and minds of the people. You have to understand them, their history, their culture, religion and background. Find out what their aspirations are for the future, short-, medium- and longterm. Only then can you start to work towards building a new government structure for a country. 

It was not done for Afghanistan. Hundreds and thousands of servicemen, who volunteered to serve their country, laid down their life for Afghanistan. And Iraq. Thinking they were helping to build a better place. But the politicians that sent them there let them down, for not having a plan to do so. 

They are back, the Taliban. The world has changed since 2001. Let's hope that Afghanistan has, after all, become a better place. Only time will tell.