Historical mistakes repeated

Today, Russian forces invaded Ukraine. The outcome for that country is likely to be subjugation if not annexation. Putin, like Hitler 83 years ago, felt resentment over the outcome of a previous conflict. In this case, the Cold War. 

By 1991, the West was crowing victory. The USSR had disintegrated, with Russia losing territory, power and its sphere of influence. Following years of upheaval, Putin came to power in 2000, and set about rebuilding his country. His armed forces were modernised, and through the supply of gas, oil and many other commodities not to mention money laundering through oligarchs and London's financial institutions, was able to build up a formidable war chest. The writing was on the wall by 2008, with an incursion into Abchasia, then a region in Georgia. Even more so in 2014, with the annexation of the Crimea. Putin's always trying to see what he would get away with. He was let off too lightly. 

Russia has not changed since the Czars, not since Communism. Paranoid and mistrustful, resentful against perceived or real wrongs, the West did not recognise the warning signs. Like Chamberlain in 1938, they felt that war could be averted through negotiation, read appeasement. A sign of weakness in Putin's eye. However, when former Warsaw pact countries in eastern Europe turned their backs on Russia and joined the EU, as well as NATO, Russia felt threatened. It's reaction when Ukraine expressed a desire to join those blocks was telling. It was a strategic mistake from Western blocks, not to realise or anticipate Putin's reaction. As outlined above, the first warnings appeared as far back as 2008. Ukraine and Europe will pay the price. Let's hope the conflagration remains relatively restricted in scope. 

Germany and Russia - 20th and 21st century

At the end of the First World War, in June 1919, a peace treaty was signed between the warring parties. It became known as the Treaty of Versailles. The treaty imposed punitive measures against Germany, firmly laying the blame for the conflict with the country, although if blame be apportioned, all were equally culpable. 

Germany lost territory and felt humiliated. In the 1920s, the country suffered an economic meltdown, with inflation skyrocketing - at one point, the US dollar was worth 1 million million Mark. Then, over the following 16 years, Adolf Hitler gradually rose to power, promising to make Germany great again. He retook the Saarland and Rhineland areas, which had been taken from Germany. Nobody opposed this aggression. In March 1938, he annexed Austria - with nobody opposing. In September 1938, with mounting concerns over war, the British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain flew to Munich for talks with Hitler. At the time, the slaughter of World War 1 were still fresh in people's memories, and all thought was to avert another bloody conflict. Hitler reassured Chamberlain, and Neville's famous quote "Peace for our time" was to become the slogan for appeasement. In the early spring of 1939, Germany annexed the Sudetenland area of Czechoslovkia, and occupied the remainder of that country. In September 1939, Nazi Germany invaded Poland, which heralded six years of war. 

Fast forward 50 years. In 1991, the Soviet Union disintegrated, the Warsaw Pact of countries also under communist rule collapsed. These included Bulgaria, Romania, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary and Poland. Russia lost its empire of satellite states that used to be part of the Soviet Union. Think of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Georgia, Belorussia, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan. And -

Ukraine. 

Then, along came a former KGB officer, Vladimir Putin. Born in 1952, Mr Putin served in the former German Democratic Republic until that state collapsed in 1990. Vladimir has been prime minister and president of the Russian Federation for more than twenty years. He has enjoyed popularity at the polls, on a ticket of making Russia great again. In fact, it is suggested that he would like to restore the old empire of the Soviet Union. Moves to that effect were seen with an incursion into Georgia in 2008, and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, part of Ukraine, in 2014. The insurrection in eastern Ukraine, which started in the same year, has been on-going to date. It has led to the establishment of two break-away states around Donetsk and Luhansk. And since the start of 2022, Russia has built up a huge array of its armed forces around Ukraine. To date, 21 February, the tally stands at 190,000. Some of these are positioned in Belarus, ruled by Putin's henchman Alexander Lukashenko. Although frantic talks continue to date to avert war, signs are ominous that the pretext for an invasion of Ukraine is already being created. Is the diplomacy another attempt at appeasement, to achieve peace for our time? As I type this, news comes through that Russia has accused Ukraine of invading its territory and killed three troops - a claim hotly denied by Kyiv. A possible pretext for an attack.

We saw what happened when Adolf Hitler promised to make Germany great again in the 1930s. I do not expect Vladimir Putin to like being compared to Adolf Hitler. Russia suffered greatly through Nazi Germany's invasion of its territory between 1941 and 1944. It lost 20 million of its popultion as a result. But an invasion of Ukraine could lead to a European conflagration which could have an equally devastating consequence. 

Just became Putin wants to make Russia great again.

Not ferry good

This winter has turned into a very windy if not stormy affair. A fortnight ago, we suffered gusts in excess of 90 mph, which caused some damage. 'Ordinary' gales have punctuated the time since, churning up the seas between the island and the mainland and leading to frequent cancellations of the ferry service. This week saw nearly three days without a ferry, leading to scenes like this in the supermarket. 

On other routes, the vessels concerned have suffered technical breakdowns or were away for their annual refit. 

The breakdowns can sometimes be traced back to the age of the boat; I think the eldest ship is 34 years old. You'd think that these would be replaced as time goes on, but no such plans appear to exist. Worse than that, two ferries that should have been in service 4 years ago are still in the shipyard, being built. Problems of a political, business or technical nature have led to that. 

In the coming week, a major storm is pencilled in for Wednesday. The forecast has only just about moved within the 5-day timeframe for reliability, so we'll see if the 90+ mph gusts materialise. Hopefully, they don't. 

Holocaust Memorial Day 2022

Today it is 77 years ago since the infamous Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camp was liberated by Soviet forces. More than a million people, mainly Jews, were killed there during the Second World War. The process was conducted as an industrial process. To date, some of the goods left behind by the victims of the Holocaust remain on display. These include suitcases with name tags, spectacle frames, hair and shoes. I have never visited Auschwitz and am not likely to.

January 27th is Holocaust Memorial Day, remembering all the victims of the Nazi's policy of extermination of all those they considered to be sub-human.

Holocaust Memorial Day remembers all victims of genocide.

We must never forget.

Burns Night 2022

It's Burns Night in Scotland, and it's haggis and whisky galore. Tortured renditions of Burns prose and poetry will be the order of the night, made even more tortured by the water of life. Haggis is an offal-based meat dish, and various bits and pieces of a sheep's innards are turned into basically mutton mince, packed into a sheep's stomach. This is served with neeps (turnips). I've tasted it once, and it's not far off mincemeat; but knowing how it's made it is not something I'd care to repeat in a hurry. Our local supermarket has shelves, laden with haggis. Leaving my slight sarcasm to one side, I would like to state that Robert Burns did not just write in Scots, he also wrote in perfect English.

Is there for honest Poverty
That hings his head, an' a' that;
The coward slave-we pass him by,
We dare be poor for a' that!
For a' that, an' a' that.
Our toils obscure an' a' that,
The rank is but the guinea's stamp,
The Man's the gowd for a' that.

What though on hamely fare we dine,
Wear hoddin grey, an' a that;
Gie fools their silks, and knaves their wine;
A Man's a Man for a' that:
For a' that, and a' that,
Their tinsel show, an' a' that;
The honest man, tho' e'er sae poor,
Is king o' men for a' that.

Ye see yon birkie, ca'd a lord,
Wha struts, an' stares, an' a' that;
Tho' hundreds worship at his word,
He's but a coof for a' that:
For a' that, an' a' that,
His ribband, star, an' a' that:
The man o' independent mind
He looks an' laughs at a' that.

A prince can mak a belted knight,
A marquis, duke, an' a' that;
But an honest man's abon his might,
Gude faith, he maunna fa' that!
For a' that, an' a' that,
Their dignities an' a' that;
The pith o' sense, an' pride o' worth,
Are higher rank than a' that.

Then let us pray that come it may,
(As come it will for a' that,)
That Sense and Worth, o'er a' the earth,
Shall bear the gree, an' a' that.
For a' that, an' a' that,
It's coming yet for a' that,
That Man to Man, the world o'er,
Shall brothers be for a' that.

Covid - January 2022

Just off the phone to family in Holland. Only 4 people can meet there indoors at any one time, meaning that any birthday celebrations or whatever have to be staggered over several days. Nice for any birthday person, but quite a strong contrast with the (literally) laissez-faire attitudes that have become the norm here in the UK.

Compare these figures.
Number of new cases per day in Holland: 40,000
Number of new cases per day in the UK: 70,000
There are 4 times as many people in the UK as there are in Holland

Daily number of deaths in Holland: 10
Daily number of deaths in the UK: 300

Pro rata, there are double the number of cases in the Netherlands as compared to the UK, but the UK has almost 8 times as many deaths. Looks like the lockdown in Holland does have an effect....

Pants

 The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has been caught with his pants down. A flurry of revelations about parties in 10 Downing Street (the Prime Minister's residence in London) during lockdown have forced him to publicly apologise. That has not stopped the torrent of revelations. On each occasions, people spoke to the media about the losses they suffered during the pandemic. It is galling, to say the least, that those in the inner circle of the Prime Minister were carousing, whilst others had to say goodbye to their dying relatives and friends by videolink. What probably really angered Johnny Public was the party on the eve of the funeral of the Duke of Edinburgh on April 17th, 2021. The image of the Queen, sitting alone in a pew, mask on, preparing to pay her final respects to her husband of more than 70 years, is seared in everybody's memory. 

Still, when called to account, ministers of the state refer to an inquiry, led by senior civil servant Sue Gray. I'll be damned if they don't all know what happened. The apologies sound hollow, and were only elicited because people were found out. If there had been no leak, no apology would have been forthcoming. 

It is redolent of a terrible attitude, the first whiff of which was discerned when BJ's former adviser Dominic Cummings drove to Barnard Castle in County Durham - to test his eyesight. One rule for us, and another rule for the rest of the plebs. And the Queen, who dutifully obeyed the lockdown rules, is treated like plebs too. 

No. 

Prime Minister, you're a disgrace. Pull up your big boy pants and follow the injunction by the leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition and make way for someone who is better suited to the job.